GHC Conversation 2012

Driving forces for scenario thinking
Driving forces for scenario thinking

Sixteen social sector and philanthropy leaders from the U.S. and Canada gathered in late March on Hilton Head Island for four days of scenario thinking about the sector and philanthropy in the year 2030. Our main focus question was: “What will the social sector ecology in North America be like in 2030 and will philanthropy be innovative and sufficiently responsive to propel real and lasting change for all?”

Well in advance, the group had identified the two forces deemed most import and most uncertain. These became our driving forces for scenario thinking. They were:

Driver 1: Approaches to pressing public social issues, mandates (education, health, retirement, employment, immigration, hunger, borders, justice)

Driver 2: Society’s orientation to philanthropy (institutions or informal networks and incentives or tight limits)

The intersection of those drivers created four possible scenarios, which framed our thinking about the emerging story of each scenario.

Look here for emerging scenario stories over the next few days.

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